What's the Real Cause of the Global Recession?

Article circulated by Mike Haywood.

Oil Shortages are driving the current economic downturn according to Economist Jeff Rubin. Writing in the October 31 *StrategEcon, Rubin analyzes previous oil shocks, showing how each predictably led to a recession.

Falling oil prices may provide temporary economic relief, he says. That may end if economic activity returns to pre-recession levels.
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/feature1.pdf

*StrategEcon is a publication of CIBC World Markets Investment Bank in Canada)

The article ends with: "If triple-digit oil prices are what started the recession, then $60 oil prices are what will end it."

But what happens to the price of oil as economies start to pick up? If cheap oil is becoming more difficult to obtain then the cost will rise again. Where might all this be heading?